There will be a time in the future when I will have organized part of my knowledge. I will be able to point at it as a tangible artifact and say, look, here is my book|website|course|software. I will feel proud although still not completely satisfied. It might be the moment when I will realize how much I have waited for that and I will ask myself: why didn’t I start earlier?
Sometimes we don’t want to see the future. We have all the signals in front of us, explicit. It would take such a little effort to relate trends and behaviors that we could anticipate what would happen soon. It’s a good investment to monitor the key tendencies and movements in our society. Especially about our fields of interest. If we feel like a trend is becoming more and more solid and we receive signals from multiple and diverse sources it could be worthy to invest some time in investigating its nature. That’s one of the possible ways we can act to be more prepared for the future or to become part of those forces shaping it.
At every moment of my life I’m at the intersection of two trees, one made of all of the events occurred and the decisions I made which brought me to today and the other made of all the possible decisions I will make in the future.
At every moment of my life I can consider and reflect upon the tree of the past but I cannot change it. While I can ponder and change the roots of the future tree by making the next decision.
It’s a concept so fascinating. Imagine seeing lives as stories already told. How would you change your behavior? What would you do? I can’t remember where I read the story about an alien species able to see the entire life of a human being unrolled in front of them from their birth until their death. I don’t remember if that life was seen as certain or ever-changing, branching towards possibilities. I like to think that it was possible to see possible lives in their entirety.
The only way we have to learn about lived lives is to listen to the stories told about them or to look at the evidence produced during their courses. We have the power of looking at an entire life when it has passed. We have half of that power.
How can we cover the other half, the one looking at the to-be-live part? Is knowing the past enough to see the future of our lives? How are the artifacts we’ve been responsible for affecting our future? What kind of evidence shall we collect to learn better about our future?
Scoping starts with a question, from an individual, a team, or an organization, framing and setting boundaries. It can spark an exploration or an exercise or a need to learn and mitigate potential risks, both internal and external to the initiator. The context could also be about the development of a new product or service.
According to the motives behind starting a futuring exploration, you can define the source, approaches and methods, ways to work, and final deliverables.
When framing the exploration you might have the need of restricting it to a certain time horizon or avoid certain topics according to the context. In some cases, a pilot project is the best approach to have a final outcome providing lasting value, even after the end of the project.
Notes from “How To Future” (2021) by Scott Smith and Madeline Ashby.
Thinking about the future is different for each of us because every person has a different view of the future.
“Futuring” is the process of exploring possible futures. It’s a way to gather information and get directions. It is also an act affecting politics, society, culture, and psychology.
There is no fixed futuring process. Although there are methods and approaches you should always think critically about their application and adjust it to your context and your needs.
Futuring vs Design
While the design process has tangible deliverables and artifacts, the futuring’s outcomes are not usually immediate and require attention when structuring its process. An effective framing of the futuring process is essential for its success.
Future Framing: What are the objectives and the boundaries of futuring?
In the futuring process, you should define the purpose and the impact, the stakeholders, the boundaries, and the practices. You should “future-proof your future-proofing”.
Notes from “How To Future” (2021) by Scott Smith and Madeline Ashby.
Speculative Design is about re-imagining our imagination to create better futures that are possible and desirable. These are the notes I’ve taken, live, during the webinar held by Debora Bottà about Speculative Design/Critical Design and Future Design.
This, in essence, is what these methods are useful for.
Deborà Bottà is a UX & Service Design Lead in Digital Entity of NTT Data. She manages teams designing User Experience for digital and non-digital services. She also the author of “User eXperience Design” a book in Italian about UX Design.
What is Speculative Design?
Captured slide: a typical futuristic landscape shown within the context of Speculative Design
When we talk about Speculative Design It’s easy to think about science-fiction landscapes as we can see in movies and Tv series in which our lives are radically transformed by technology. This is not the true meaning and purpose of Speculative Design although these disciplines tap into some of the techniques used by science-fiction to imagine future worlds.
Speculative Design has no roots in this type of literature but in the field of Radical Architecture.
Radical Architecture A cohort of Italian architects and designers active from the late 1960s through the 1970s. They placed themselves in opposition to the rationalism and functionalism of 20th-century modernism and formed during a tumultuous period characterized by political violence and extremism, student uprisings, and social unrest. Working in collectives including Archizoom, Superstudio, and Studio Alchimia, they produced experimental, anti-establishment architectural and interior designs, furnishings, and objects. A spirit of playfulness undergirded an approach that had serious aims. Their eccentric output—ranging from speculative monuments meant to foster worldwide order to lounge chairs shaped like an oversized patch of grass—broke from what they saw as the prescriptive thinking of the past to shape a future free of war, inequality, materialism, and other human ills. —https://www.moma.org/collection/terms/135
Radical Architects wanted to promote utopian ideas of architecture using what were considered as advanced technologies at that time. Italian culture, as frequently happens, was also key in the development of this movement.
A definition of Speculative Design
“Let’s call it critical design, that questions the cultural, social and ethical implications of emerging technologies.
A form of design that can help us to define the most desirable futures, and avoid the least desirable.”
A Critical Design that reflects on the implications of the technological progress, this is how the seminal book, “Speculative Everything”, defines Speculative Design. What are the most desirable futures? This, the key research topic.
Speculations
An example video of what a Speculative Design activity would produce as an outcome.
A Day Made of Glass… Made possible by Corning. (2011)
The application of technology where transparent surfaces become screen to interact with digital devices, in everyday life: home, business, and education.
A Day Made of Glass 2: Unpacked. The Story Behind Corning’s Vision. (2012)
This video shows a utopic vision of a world where technology is pervasive and increases the quality of our lives.
In Black Mirror, an entertainment product, a TV Series produced by Netflix, usage of technologies not always bring good outcomes. In this case, the future is seen in a completely different way.
Black Mirror, TV Series, Trailer.
Properties of Speculative Design
Speculative Design/Critical Design is not utopian nor dystopian. Future has many shades and it’s complex because we’re unpredictable and contradictory compared to the perfect consumers we would we supposed to be
Speculative Design/Critical Design Is not an exercise in fantasy. it ‘s based on knowing existing technologies and trends, using the knowledge of experts when needed. It considers futures that are probable, plausible, possible, and preferable, but not impossible.
A Taxonomy of Futures. Redrawn from Speculative Everything. Stuart Candy.
Speculative Design/Critical Design is not a prediction of the future. Rather, it creates a narrative of possible future realities to help us questioning the possible implications on the present: on society, on the economy, on business and so on.
Speculative Design/Critical Design does not solve problems, it finds them. Design becomes a means to search for problems to approach. The role of technology is rediscussed to face its implications rather than its applications.
Speculative Design/Critical Design does not create innovative products. It rather creates imaginary and fictional worlds that allow us to reconsider our world. It questions ideas and assumptions on the roles of products in our lives.
Speculative Design/Critical Design does not talk to consumers. It moves from the needs and wants of the market to focus on a broader social context. It creates artifacts to think on and with, not to be purchased.
Manifesto a/b
A comparison table showing the differences between Traditional Design and Speculative/Critical design
(a) Traditional Design
(b) Speculative/Critical Design
Affirmative
Critical
Problem-solving
Problem finding
Design as process
Design as medium
Provides answers
Asks questions
In the service of industry
In the service of society
For how the world is
For how the world could be
Science fiction
Social fiction
futures
Parallel worlds
Fictional functions
Functional fictions
Change the world to suit us
Change us to suit the world
Narratives of production
Narratives of consumption
anti-art
Applied art
Research for design
Research through design
applications
implications
Design for production
Design for debate
fun
satire
Concept design
Conceptual design
consumer
citizen
user
person
training
education
Makes us buy
Makes us think
innovation
provocation
ergonomics
rhetoric
Speculative/Critical Design is the use of design to create artifacts living in a future scenario, fed by current trends, to start a dialogue and a critical reflection. It is not an effort to predict the future but to create stories of possible future realities to question the implication on the present.
—Debora Bottà
That is the meaning of the expression: “Imagining our future to start building it today”.
Starting from the reflection we do on future scenarios we go backward to question what we have learned about what we could do and use it to steer our present towards that desirable future.
Artifacts of Speculative Design
Example: Helios Pilot, a project of Near Future Laboratory, commissioned by Amazon.
It’s a quick-start guide for a fictional autonomous driving car. The idea was to imagine how they would have presented to future users how to use the car instead of thinking about the actual features of the vehicle.
This helps to empathize with real users and consider the implications of this technology. How is my life changed if I own and use an autonomous car?
It’s a tangible artifact supporting our reflection.
Catalog from the Near Future – IKEA
Another example from the same agencies, using the popular IKEA catalog, designers tried to imagine how everyday life would be in the future where the Internet Of Things would be more pervasive. Another way to reflect on a possible future.
Moovel in a Box
What if you could be shipped? A very speculative view on the future of personal transportation.
Example: Mitigation of Shock (London) – Suncorp. By Superflux. A pragmatic experiment practicing hope for a future disrupted by climate change
Superflux imagined a future in which climate change becomes an important disruption: how would we find food? In a real apartment, they created an installation in which they created every detail about newspapers, books on how to use insects to prepare meals. With special lamps, it would be possible to cultivate plants in-house. In this case, they went beyond the prototype by creating real working technologies.
In this case history, Nefula imagined the futures of work by mapping different possible futures and their relations.
Speculative Design, as seen in the previous examples, could be used to imagine a far future or a closer one according to the level of speculation designers are aiming to. It’s always important to remember that al imagined futures must be possible.
what if our data had funerals too?
Design Friction explored a what-if scenario: “what if our data had funerals too?” Would data acquire a different value?
And it rethinks the future using those technologies and those social relations that can emerge from our current world. It questions hypotheses and prejudices that we have on the role of products and services in our lives.
Speculative Design Tools
What do designers use in their Speculative Design practice?
Thing from the future card deck
Combining three cards, a type of futures (green), an object (red), a context (blue) you can create combinations acting as creativity prompts to imagine future scenarios.
Example: “in a green future there is a festival dedicated to health, what is it?”
In this exercise, participants are invited to imagine an object coming from the future. While it’s easy to set-up the starting question, trying to go back to design that object, to make it plausible and possible, is the real design challenge. This process promotes critical reasoning about the implications of the imagined future.
Flaws of the Smart City
A tool to think critically about smart cities and their implications.
The Tarot Cards Of Tech
A card deck to stimulate the discussion about technologies and their impact.
Actionable Futures Toolkit
A complex toolkit for designers familiar with Design Thinking approaches to help organizations to build services and products aligned with the future. What should happen today, if we backtrack from imagined futures, to allow it to happen?
New Normal 2020 – Nordkapp
Nordkapp created a report, in which they describe future technology trends to be used as starting points for more documented and researched scenarios.
The Institute for the Future
US Based, with an office in Italy, the IFF is a research organization publishing reports on trends, data, and content to support your Speculative Design.
Reflections on Speculative Design
Differently than science-fiction, in design fiction, there is always a bond between the present and the imagined future. Extending the present in the future is what makes the narrative of Speculative Design a powerful tool to generate discussion and second-thoughts on our lives.
All of the practices we have seen implicate changes.
“Design today is concerned primarily with commercial and marketing activities but it could operate on a more intellectual level.”
— Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby
Design can also be used at a higher level to imagine desirable futures. It can become a means to rebuild our future considering what we are living in today.
“To create something new, or make a change, we have to be able to imagine how things can be different. The future is a place where everything can be different.”
— Jane McGonigal. Institute For The Future
Exercise your Imagination
Jane McGonigal created 3 simple exercises about imagination:
Predicting the past. What if you didn’t do what you’ve just did
Remembering the future. What about projecting yourself in a specific place with the desired person to do something you want to do?
Hard empathy. Stories and cultures: how would you imagine yourself within different contexts you have read in some stories?
“By speculating more, at all levels of society, and exploring alternative scenarios, reality will become more malleable and although the future cannot be predicted, we can help set in place today factors that will increase the probability of more desirable futures happening.”
— Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby
We need to re-imagine our capability to imagine.
“We need to be able to imagine positive, feasible, delightful versions of the future before we can create them.”
— “From What Is to What If”, Rob Hopkins
UPDATE: watch the webinar recording, it’s in Italian but you can activate translated subtitles.
Thanks to Debora Bottà for her wonderful webinar. I’ve found so many insights and inspirations to fuel my imagination for the foreseeable future. 😊
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